This isn't Sherrod Brown's first rodeo.
The three-term senator and standard bearer for Ohio's Democratic Party is sticking to a familiar playbook as he seeks reelection against Republican Bernie Moreno this November. His campaign ads and stump speeches tout the "dignity of work." He paints himself as a fighter for the little guy, someone who's willing to take on corporations, Big Pharma and anyone else who gets in the way.
It's a familiar refrain in unprecedented times. Brown began his campaign with President Joe Biden on the ballot, then joined the chorus of Democrats who called for change after Biden's disastrous debate performance. The Republican nominee, former president Donald Trump, was twice the target of assassination attempts. In recent weeks, Brown's constituents in Springfield became the target of national anti-immigrant fervor.
Election 2024: Where do Sen. Sherrod Brown, opponent Bernie Moreno stand on major issues?
Brown rarely wants to talk about national politics, often quipping to reporters that he's not a pundit. He'd prefer to keep the conversation on Ohio. In August, he barnstormed the state as Democrats gathered in Chicago for their convention to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris for president.
"I don't really look at politics left or right," Brown told reporters in Toledo that week, revisiting another favorite line. "I look at it as whose side you're on."
You can't always get what you want.
Brown is one of the most vulnerable Democrats on the ballot this year − second only to Montana Sen. Jon Tester − and the outcome in Ohio could determine which party controls a closely divided U.S. Senate come January. That, in turn, impacts who is appointed to federal courts and agencies, what kind of legislation gets passed and whether the party that wins the White House can advance its agenda.
Enter Moreno, a luxury car dealer turned blockchain executive and the third Republican to take on Brown since 2006. The GOP likes its chances: Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans control all other statewide offices. The last time Brown ran during a presidential election year, former president Barack Obama won the Buckeye State.
But with just weeks to go until the Nov. 5 election, some observers say Moreno hasn't done enough to persuade voters to send Brown packing.
"If Moreno can get his name out there, emphasize that he's the Trump candidate, that might be enough," said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for Cook Political Report. "But this race is by no means over. I think that Sherrod Brown's still very much in this."
Can Republicans flip Sherrod Brown's seat?
Brown entered the race with all the advantages of incumbency: No primary, a substantial war chest and support from national Democrats who spend money to defend their own.
"I think he has run with the understanding that he doesn’t need to dominate the headlines," University of Cincinnati political scientist David Niven said. "He's running from a place of being very well known and very well defined."
Moreno can't say the same. He first had to defeat Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, in an expensive March primary − a victory that was never guaranteed. In the end, an endorsement from Trump and support from Ohio Sen. JD Vance helped propel Moreno to the finish line and win more decisively than polls predicted.
His campaign strategy is the complete opposite of Brown's. With no legislative record to tout, Moreno presents himself as a political outsider trying to oust a so-called career politician. He ties Brown to Biden and Harris at every opportunity while aligning himself closely with Trump. He centers his platform around immigration and the economy, two issues that tend to play better for the GOP.
What's missing from that narrative, Taylor said, is Moreno's personal story. So Brown filled the void.
As a car dealer, Moreno was accused of employee discrimination and sanctioned by a judge for destroying documents in a lawsuit over staff overtime pay. He overstated his role in the closure of a Chinese language and culture program at Cleveland State University. During the primary, Moreno's Republican opponents attacked him for hisshifting positionson immigration and gun control.
Cue ads from Brown and his allies claiming that Moreno is anti-worker and can't be trusted.
"Unlike Sherrod Brown, I am on the campaign trail in every corner of the state talking about the issues that matter most to Ohioans: the economy, the border crisis and energy," Moreno said in a statement. "Sherrod Brown has to resort to personal attacks on me because he cannot run on his own disastrous record."
Former U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, who ran against Brown in 2018, said the political environment is ripe for Republicans to finally flip Brown's seat.
But Renacci offered a cautionary tale: Brown is an effective retail politician who's been able to win independents and reach some Republican voters. He also has a strong operation in counties that are key to statewide victory in Ohio, including Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga and Lucas.
"He's gotten his blueprint out there as to what he wants people to believe he has done for the state," Renacci said. "He's also attacked Bernie. He's trying to build the image of Bernie that he wants to build. I think those are the kinds of things that will make a difference."
Ohio Senate race attracts record spending
Another thing that can tip the scales in campaigns? Money.
Brown was outraising and outspending Moreno as of July, the most recent campaign finance data available. But neither candidate is wanting for financial support: Democratic and GOP groups had spent or reserved nearly $300 million in Ohio by Sept. 13, according to the ad-tracking firm Medium Buying, which will only increase as the election nears.
The race between Brown and Moreno will likely be the most expensive Senate race in the country. For voters, that means a deluge of ads on YouTube and during the commercial breaks between Buckeye football plays.
Next month, they'll decide which candidate made the best sales pitch.
Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: How Ohio Senate race could decide which party controls the US Senate